A Method for Estimating the Required Amount of Heat Consumption by the Housing Stock Sector in the Russian Federation Entities

Abstract

The relevance of carrying out work on predicting the necessary amounts of heat consumption in the Russian Federation (RF) entities (cities, regions and districts) for their heating systems is stemming from the extremely important necessity of determining the amounts in which fuel-and-energy resources shall be produced and how they shall be distributed among the districts, regions and cities. These predictions are also used to plan the necessary amounts of heat consumption in the RF entities, taking into account the dynamics of their development, i.e., the increase of these amounts due to commissioning of new areas/facilities in the RF entities. The complexity of applying the existing methods to determining the heat consumption for heating and ventilation in a district (e.g., in the Central Federal District) lies in ensuring the accuracy of determining the number of buildings and their specific heat losses. To this end, aggregated indicators of specific design amounts of heat expenditure in residential buildings per capita for cities have been proposed, which are calculated on the basis of specific heat losses specified for typical buildings and old houses (4–5-storey brick houses, 5–9-storey block and panel houses, and 9–12-storey panel houses). The approach to determining predicted estimates of the necessary amounts of heat consumption in the housing stock of RF entities (cities, regions and districts) for their heating systems is proposed. This approach is based on the following two methods: (1) the adapted method for analyzing statistical data on the amounts of heat consumption in the housing stock of RF entities for their heating systems, which is used to determine the statistical data; (2) the method for determining predicted estimates of necessary heat consumption amounts in the housing stock of RF entities for their heating systems. The proposed approach has been approbated taking as an example the case of determining predicted estimates of the necessary heat consumption amounts in the housing stock of the Central Federal District for its heating systems. This approbation justifies the applicability of the proposed approach to settling matters concerned with planning the amounts of heat consumption in the housing stock of RF entities for their heating systems and with supplying fuel-and-energy resources to them with due regard of the anticipated future development of the RF entities.